After a spell of helping some colleagues in the racing game overseas and no longer working for the man, we're back with our weekly racing ramblings.
And since we've been away, nothing much has changed. Waller's still taking all before him, imports are stealing our races from under our noses and the TV pundits in general are still as maddening as hell. Betting without the Duff and Deano of course, class acts both of them
After a stellar career, with 9 wins and 17 placings from just over 50 starts, our old favourite Topping has been retired. He suffered a bleeding attack when odds on at Brisbane and never fully recovered. Pleased to report that I saw him last week, rugged up and blissfully happy at his new home where he's being well looked after.
So to Flemington. Worlds' best flat racetrack bar none and the best days racing. Here's my thoughts on a brilliant card.
RACE ONE
The short list here consists of OUR VESPA, terribly unlucky last time and now with C Williams on board, STRATUM STAR, who has put together a series of great wins and KERMADEC who is still learning but ran exceptional time on debut before missing the start in a muddling race at Randwick.
Marginally leaning to the Waller horse KERMADEC as it's proven to enjoy 1600m and the booking of Shinn commands respect. But not a race to approach lightly.
Last minute update. I've just watched chris' excellent weekly video and he's not bullish about KERMADEC who he described as being up in class here. But as a kiwi, he did give a very strong push for OUR VESPA. We're on at $11. Would be a great start...
RACE TWO
The Wakeful is a unique race, the perfect lead up to the Oaks for all those fillies who look like stayers. We had our old girl XAAR XAAR in the race as a 3yo but to be honest only really made the field due to a high attrition rate. This years race is split between being a rematch of the Ethereal, which saw 5 of today's runners engaged and broadly a heap of runners who have yet to run at the distance.
SET SQUARE, the winner of the Ethereal isn't here and I'm not sure that's the form compared to the outstanding front running win of FONTEIN RUBY on a Caulfield track that was favouring swoopers. Lots of good judges think ABDUCTION has the feet on the till, but while it's probably a race in two, I'd rate FONTEIN RUBY as a five star bet. Out of five...
RACE THREE
Won't waste your time. This will be a throw at the stumps for me. LIMES has beaten THE CLEANER over course and distance. He's $41. Unless leaders are drowning, that's an each way bet for me. Small stakes only. Horrendous race...
RACE FOUR
Possibly the best Coolmore for a while. I reckon that I've heard a good push in the last few days for at least six of them, ranging from the view that RICH ENUFF back to Flemington will blow them away to strong each way confidence for INKLING and GALAXY PEGASUS.
I'm tempted by the fact that GALAXY PEGASUS has clocked unbelievable times in every run. Except the last time she was here. Tempted by the $41. I'm also tempted as ever by the Duff pointing out how fat INKLING was last time. Also $41.
Will probably put RICH ENUFF into a double with FONTEIN RUBY. Great race to watch...
RACE FIVE
The quality keeps coming. Lots of these need a win to get into the Cup and of course 2500 over Flemington is a true test of real quality. The whole world including very good judges think SIGNOFF is home and hosed, but I'd want at least $6 about anything in this race. He won 6 of 7 in his first prep. Yet to win this time. $3 way too short...
And at the same time, he's up against one of my blackbookers. LORD VAN PERCY ran as good a race as any, first time off the plane in the Herbert Power. It wasn't Karen's best ride but at the same time, they might not have been 100% primed. If you know what I mean.
This is his grand final, with the potential to qualify for a really grand final. That second to Mutual Regard at York in the Ebor reads really well for this as he'll be hitting the line strong in what may be a blanket finish. The bookies haven't missed him and $7 is the best now, but we're on each way at $10. Very keen.
RACE SIX (phew)
Cracking race. The distance makes it very open and again I could confidently back a heap of these. As regular readers know, can never not back FORETELLER and Bossy adds that flavour of anything can happenness. But as in the old Beatles joke, I'm not sure that he's even the best of the Waller runners, as HES YOUR MAN has been set for this after winning a really good Epsom and of course the Kingston Town over this distance.
The recent runs of ADELAIDE and ADMIRE RAKTI mean that it's impossible to ignore FARRAAJ or AMRALAH. I'm probably slightly leaning to the former, whose run in the John Smith at York looks ideal for this. Plus he's $15 at time of writing.
Tough race, feasible that none of the four will win, with dangers from everywhere and many good judges following CRITERION. Good luck...
THE DERBY
Sacrilege probably but for me the least interesting race on the day. Gai's favourite could well win by lengths and then the media world will forget all the other blue bloods that haven't made it here.
The best outsider is GOULDIAN. PREFERMENT is a head case and not one of them has ever run over the distance under race conditions. I can lend you a pin if you want...
RACE EIGHT.
No idea, sorry. Can't narrow it down to 3 let alone 1. Best outsider might indeed by DIAMOND DRILLE. Duff thinks so. That's good enough for me.
RACE NINE
By this time we'll know how the track is playing. Hopefully still have some money left. Either way, I'm going to oppose the favourite. If it wins by panels, well hey. I'm not backing it at $1.55 when there are perfectly good dogs going round at Dubbo at $2 that are better bets.
I just have to follow the CHATAQUA, TERRAVISTA and TARGET IN SIGHT form. We were given a strong push for the latter when it won a blousing finish in the Testarossa. Our pick IN CAHOOTS was inches away and then had the opposite luck with a good run to beat ADAMANTIUM last time. The favourite may be the new BC, but with 4 wins so far only amounting to $133k, will happily take the $2.50 a place on our choice.
Best of the day:
WIN: FONTEIN RUBY, LORD VAN PERCY. NB: RICH ENUFF (sorry)
EACH WAY: FAARAAJ.
good luck. Please share...
